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A potentially powerful El Niño climate pattern is expected to develop this summer, and forecasters say it could significantly affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season by suppressing storm activity, though considerable uncertainty remains about how strong the event will become.
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise above average, weakening the east-to-west trade winds and triggering wide-ranging weather changes across North America and beyond. The current La Niña pattern is fading, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now places a 62% chance of El Niño developing between June and August.
There is also a roughly one-in-three chance the event could intensify into what forecasters informally call a "super El Niño" by October through December, meaning sea-surface temperatures would run about 1.5°C, or roughly 4°F, above average. The Weather Channel reports that such an event would be the strongest El Niño since the 2023–2024 episode, which ranked among the top five strongest warming events on record.
For South Florida and the broader Atlantic region, the key concern is what El Niño means for hurricane season. El Niño typically pumps high-altitude wind shear over the Atlantic Basin during the summer and fall months. That shear can tear developing storms apart before they strengthen into hurricanes.
However, experts are quick to point out that El Niño is no guarantee of a quiet hurricane season. The 2023–2024 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, did not prevent a robust Atlantic hurricane season. That year produced 20 named storms, well above the 14-storm historical average, including Hurricane Idalia, which slammed into Florida's Big Bend region as a Category 3 storm, the strongest to strike that area since 1896. Forecasters say exceptionally warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures that year largely offset El Niño's suppressing effect.
Beyond hurricane season, a strong El Niño could bring wetter and cooler winters to the South, including Florida, while keeping the northern United States relatively dry and warm. For summer, El Niño is not expected to significantly alter South Florida's day-to-day summer weather, since the jet stream shifts north regardless of ENSO phase and local thunderstorms are driven by localized winds.
Global temperature records are also in play. According to NOAA, 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record globally, and there is currently more than a 90% chance that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years ever recorded. However, the odds of 2026 becoming the single warmest year on record stand at about 1% — a figure that could rise sharply in 2027 if the El Niño event is strong and long-lasting.
NOAA is expected to release its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook in May, ahead of the season's official start on Wednesday (June 1).